Câu 26: CFA Level 3

Jack Thomas and Tim Bentley are analysts for Bond Analytics (BA). BA provides bond analysis for mutual fund managers, hedge fund managers, and institutional money managers in the United States. BA specializes in the valuation of international bonds and callable bonds, using intrasector analysis to find undervalued bonds. In addition to valuing the bonds, they also advise clients on whether to hedge currency risk for international bonds. Thomas has been a particularly strong advocate of hedging the currency risk of international bonds, especially in emerging markets, using forward contracts when they are available. At a morning meeting, Thomas and Bentley are trying to decide whether to hedge the currency risk of a large issue of bonds from a Thai manufacturer of pressed steel, Nakhon Metals. The client considering purchasing the bonds is a large U.S. mutual fund, Epsilon Funds. Epsilon has started to explore the possibility of earning higher returns through currency management using forward contracts. Thomas and Bentley discuss the various hedges of currency risk for the NakhonMetals bond. One possibility is using a forward hedge position on the Thai baht. A second possibility is using forward contracts where the baht is delivered forKorean won. Thomas states that the second hedge would be pursued if the won was expected to appreciate more against the U.S. dollar than the baht. In the second hedge, the manager would sell won for dollars at the future spot rate. Thomas and Bentley gather the following information on the expected changes in the various currencies, the 1-year cash rates in the respective countries, and the expected return on the Nakhon bond. Additionally, the Nakhon Metals bond has a duration of 7.30 and is being compared against a bond denominated in U.S. dollars, issued by Powhatan Industries. The Powhatan bond has a duration of 4.2 and a yield of 4.50%. Whichever bond is purchased will be held for the next year. Thomas projects that the yield for theNakhon Metals bond is expected to increase by I 5 basis points while the yield on the Powhatan Industries bond is expected to stay constant. The following day, Thomas and Bentley discuss the market for and valuation of callable and long duration bonds. They believe that interest rates are temporarily low and for this reason want to be careful about their bond investments. Although they could hedge interest rate risk, they prefer not to because they believe it reduces the ultimate long-term return. Thomas says that due to secular changes in the bond market, bonds with structures are expected to become more scarce. He says that the problem with callable bonds has been that they typically trade at a premium due to their scarcity. Bentley states that bonds with long durations also trade at a premium because they are scarce as well. Thomas states that the performance of callables and non-callables may differ when interest rates change due to the inherent call risk. He discusses the relative performance under two scenarios:"¢ Scenario A: Interest rates are near coupon rates and fall for both callables and non-callables by the same amount."¢ Scenario B: Interest rates are historically very low and rise for both callables and non-callables by the same amount. Determine whether Thomas and Bentley are correct or incorrect regarding their statements about the scarcity and pricing of callable and long duration bonds.

1. A. Only Thomas is correct.
2. B. Only Bentley is correct.
3. C. Both are correct. — đáp án hiện tại